US Presidential Election: Who Is Tipped Win?

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The 2020 US presidential election is well underway, and with the nominees in place for the Democrats and the GOP, all that remains to be seen is the announcement of running mates.

It can be assumed that incumbent VP, Mike Pence, will be standing alongside President Donald Trump, however, the door is still open to announce a running mate for Democratic nominee, Joe Biden. Many are saying that Biden may need a woman to balance the ticket, and left-leaning Democrats are calling for Biden to announce Stacey Abrams as his running mate.

Whilst the Democratic VP is currently unknown, the presidential race tells a different story. The 2016 election shook the world, when Hillary Clinton was seen as the clear frontrunner to become the next President of the United States, but lost to anti-establishment candidate, Donald Trump, when the electoral college decided the fate of the nation.

 

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In 2020, things aren’t so clear cut, and there doesn’t seem to be a runaway winner. As of April 27th, political betting markets from Betfair have Trump edging ahead of Biden with odds of 11/10. This reflects that voters haven’t yet made up their minds. For Vice Presidential candidates, it is looking a little more open. With growing calls for Biden to pick a woman of colour as his running mate, California Senator Kamala Harris, former Governor of Georgia Stacey Abrams, and even former FLOTUS Michelle Obama are listed as having good odds to become the next VP.As rich, older white men, Trump and Biden might seem to be similar candidates. However, the way in which they are playing this race could have a major impact on one becoming a likely frontrunner. From policies to social media presence, they are playing this election very differently, with each team making a gamble on one extreme or the other.

 

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Having served in office for most of his adult life, Joe Biden represents the establishment. He is well known for serving as President Obama’s VP, which for his base is an important factor against Trump, who has only served four years in public office. For Trump’s base, it is no matter that he is from outside of Washington. In 2016, he stood on a platform to ‘Drain the Swamp’ of public officials, and he continues his tirade against ‘Washington elites’ to this day. Typically, his blue-collar base is distrustful of Federal government, and that Biden is entrenched within the system will only serve to strengthen Trump’s argument.


Trump has already built a reputation for tweeting from his personal account, rather than the official presidential Twitter account, and often tweets uncensored tirades. On the other hand, Biden’s approach has been more measured, though the voice of his tweets would suggest that he is not the one holding his phone. Americans have become used to hearing the president’s every response to Fox News on an almost daily basis, and it might perhaps feel weird that Biden is almost certainly employing a ghostwriter.


Whilst it looks to be a tighter race than 2016, one thing is for sure; the next President of the United States will be a man over 70. With just the VP nominations to be picked, the race for the White House is now on, and the next few months will be crucial for the candidates.


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