IT could be a tough time for Labour in Warrington according to a poll by popular polling website Calculus.
Current polling predictions based on opinion polls from November 1 to November 9, sampling 8,210 people, indicate Labour’s Faisal Rashid will lose out to Conservative Andy Carter in the South, while Charlotte Nichols, could see a majority of over 9,500 won by Helen Jones in the North in 2017, cut to around 1,000.
The poll also predicts a big increase in the Lib Dem vote.
Of course opinion polls have been proven to be wide of the mark in the past with a month to go to polling day.
The current polling predictions suggest the Conservatives will win the General Election with a majority of 114. But a month is a long time in politics.
For more details visit https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Warrington South
This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Warrington South.
Warrington South | Predicted Results | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
District | Ward | Electorate 2017 |
CON Votes |
LAB Votes |
LIB Votes |
Brexit Votes |
Green Votes |
UKIP Votes |
MIN Votes |
OTH Votes |
Total Votes |
Warrington | Appleton | 8,515 | 3,110 | 1,725 | 1,150 | 472 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 57 | 6,537 |
Warrington | Bewsey and Whitecross | 9,890 | 2,129 | 3,424 | 742 | 626 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 83 | 7,054 |
Warrington | Grappenhall and Thelwall | 7,736 | 2,598 | 1,700 | 996 | 447 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 58 | 5,824 |
Warrington | Great Sankey North | 5,122 | 1,535 | 1,327 | 555 | 331 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 37 | 3,804 |
Warrington | Great Sankey South | 8,483 | 2,334 | 2,388 | 776 | 571 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 85 | 6,199 |
Warrington | Hatton, Stretton and Walton | 2,482 | 925 | 474 | 327 | 136 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 1,885 |
Warrington | Latchford East | 6,517 | 1,451 | 2,198 | 496 | 434 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 56 | 4,669 |
Warrington | Latchford West | 5,424 | 1,464 | 1,556 | 455 | 382 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 52 | 3,936 |
Warrington | Lymm | 9,897 | 3,408 | 2,097 | 1,321 | 544 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 73 | 7,473 |
Warrington | Penketh and Cuerdley | 6,798 | 2,092 | 1,786 | 645 | 456 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 49 | 5,054 |
Warrington | Stockton Heath | 5,142 | 1,732 | 1,115 | 691 | 270 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 37 | 3,860 |
Warrington | Whittle Hall | 9,749 | 2,756 | 2,671 | 1,157 | 511 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 82 | 7,212 |
Total | 85,755 | 25,534 | 22,461 | 9,311 | 5,180 | 0 | 336 | 0 | 685 | 63,507 |
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.
Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Warrington North
This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Warrington North.
Warrington North | Predicted Results | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
District | Ward | Electorate 2017 |
CON Votes |
LAB Votes |
LIB Votes |
Brexit Votes |
Green Votes |
UKIP Votes |
MIN Votes |
OTH Votes |
Total Votes |
Warrington | Birchwood | 8,095 | 2,120 | 2,122 | 636 | 552 | 171 | 37 | 0 | 38 | 5,676 |
Warrington | Burtonwood and Winwick | 4,809 | 1,362 | 1,256 | 366 | 323 | 71 | 17 | 0 | 23 | 3,418 |
Warrington | Culcheth, Glazebury and Croft | 8,839 | 2,889 | 1,989 | 818 | 550 | 132 | 26 | 0 | 38 | 6,442 |
Warrington | Fairfield and Howley | 9,809 | 2,114 | 3,016 | 570 | 681 | 212 | 52 | 0 | 50 | 6,695 |
Warrington | Orford | 8,103 | 1,779 | 2,475 | 463 | 630 | 130 | 45 | 0 | 41 | 5,563 |
Warrington | Poplars and Hulme | 7,963 | 1,715 | 2,474 | 431 | 616 | 132 | 45 | 0 | 41 | 5,454 |
Warrington | Poulton North | 7,737 | 1,869 | 2,224 | 539 | 576 | 136 | 38 | 0 | 37 | 5,419 |
Warrington | Poulton South | 4,901 | 1,409 | 1,215 | 324 | 397 | 68 | 23 | 0 | 22 | 3,458 |
Warrington | Rixton and Woolston | 6,896 | 2,043 | 1,669 | 484 | 534 | 100 | 30 | 0 | 29 | 4,889 |
Warrington | Westbrook | 4,864 | 1,401 | 1,181 | 409 | 337 | 81 | 20 | 0 | 20 | 3,449 |
Total | 72,016 | 18,701 | 19,621 | 5,040 | 5,196 | 1,233 | 333 | 0 | 339 | 50,463 |
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official. The wards used are those of 2015, to match those used by the Boundary Commissions.
3 Comments
What seems clear from this poll is that the Lib Dems cannot win or even come close so a vote for them is a wasted vote.
Have the Labour candidates Faisal Rashid declared yet that they will campaign for REMUNERATION if Labour win & there is a second referendum?
In English this time Jackie! Come on, is this the best the Russian troll factories can do!?